Check out my new ‘Policy Watch’ for the Washington Institute: “One Year of the Islamic State Worldwide Activity Map”

On March 21, 2023, The Washington Institute launched the Islamic State Select Worldwide Activity Map as a way to better track and understand the global jihadist organization’s status. The ongoing project includes data on IS propaganda, claims of responsibility, financial sanctions, arrests, and other factors, providing a more holistic view of the group than attack data alone.

A year later, the data collectively paints a sobering picture. Although the core IS “provinces” in Iraq and Syria remain degraded, the group has been able to diversify at the periphery, with the Khorasan province in Afghanistan (aka IS-K) spearheading external operations while various other provinces establish territorial control in Africa. IS supporters continue to plot major terrorist attacks as well, especially in Turkey, though most of these have been thwarted by law enforcement (with the notable exception of the January 2024 bombings in Kerman, Iran). Given these evolving threats, it is worthwhile to explore the findings of the IS Activity Map project in greater detail, since they can provide a clearer picture of where the organization stands today amid growing calls to dissolve the global coalition tasked with fighting IS.

Click here to read the rest.

Check out my new ‘Policy Watch’ for the Washington Institute: “The Islamic State is on the March in its African ‘Provinces'”

Nearly five years after losing territorial control in its core areas of Iraq and Syria, the Islamic State is once again racking up territorial gains around Africa. In Mali, IS forces seized portions of the rural eastern Menaka region and the Ansongo district in southern Gao last year, while foreign fighters reportedly became more interested in traveling to Wilayat Sahel, the group’s self-styled “Sahel Province.” Elsewhere, IS “provinces” in Somalia and Mozambique have taken over various towns in the Puntland and Cabo Delgado regions over the past two months, further destabilizing the area and in some cases jeopardizing important natural gas projects.

Click here to read the rest.

The Islamic State’s Fourth Bayat Campaign

Previously, I tracked the bayat campaign for Abu Ibrahim after Abu Bakr’s death, then for Abu al-Hasan after Abu Ibrahim’s death, and then for Abu al-Husayn after Abu al-Hasan’s death. This post will do the same with the announcement of Abu al-Husayn’s death and Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Quarashi as the new leader of the Islamic State. As I said in the original post:

There are two main reasons for this: 1. pledges are leader-specific rather than group-specific and thus need to be renewed with each succession and 2. it is a way to legitimize al-Qurashi’s rule and create a media event so that the group can promote itself as it transitions to a new phase.

The first reason is also something that IS pointed to when it began to overtly feud with al-Qaeda (AQ) in 2013, by saying that following Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi’s death, his successor Abu Hamzah al-Muhajir gave baya to the newly created Islamic State of Iraq’s leader Abu ‘Umar al-Baghdadi and even after Abu ‘Umar was killed, when Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi took over in 2010 and then Usamah Bin Laden was killed in 2011, Abu Bakr never publicly gave baya to Ayman al-Zawahiri, even if al-Zawahiri claims he gave it to him privately. Therefore, from the perspective of IS this whole process is not trivial, but important for legitimacy of its leadership and to potentially weed out any insubordination before it manifests into something larger as it already did in the past vis-a-vis AQ.

This post will be updated with the latest official pledges.

August 5, 2023:

Wilāyat al-‘Irāq

Wilāyat Gharb Ifrīqīyah – Krenoa Region

August 6, 2023:

Wilāyat al-Ṣūmāl

Wilāyat al-Yaman

August 7, 2023:

Wilāyat al-Sāḥil – Tri-Border Area

Wilāyat Bākistān

August 8, 2023:

Wilāyat Wasaṭ Ifrīqīyah

Wilāyat al-‘Irāq

Wilāyat Gharb Ifrīqīyah – al-Buhayrah Region

Wilāyat al-Sāḥil – Anderamboukane

August 9, 2023:

Wilāyat Khurāsān

Wilāyat Gharb Ifrīqīyah – Sambisa Region

Wilāyat al-Sāḥil – Azawagh

August 10, 2023:

Wilāyat al-Shām

Wilāyat Gharb Ifrīqīyah – al-Faruq Region and Banki Region

August 11, 2023:

Wilāyat al-‘Irāq

August 12, 2023:

Wilāyat Sharq Asīā

August 14, 2023:

Wilāyat Mūzambīq

Wilāyat Bākistān

Wilāyat Sāḥil – Burkina Faso

August 16, 2023:

Wilāyat al-‘Irāq

Wilāyat al-Shām

The Islamic State’s Third Bayat Campaign

Previously, I tracked the bayat campaign for Abu Ibrahim after Abu Bakr’s death and then for Abu al-Hasan after Abu Ibrahim’s death. This post will do the same with the announcement of Abu al-Hasan’s death and Abu al-Husayn al-Husayni al-Qurashi as the new leader of the Islamic State. As I said in the original post:

There are two main reasons for this: 1. pledges are leader-specific rather than group-specific and thus need to be renewed with each succession and 2. it is a way to legitimize al-Qurashi’s rule and create a media event so that the group can promote itself as it transitions to a new phase.

The first reason is also something that IS pointed to when it began to overtly feud with al-Qaeda (AQ) in 2013, by saying that following Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi’s death, his successor Abu Hamzah al-Muhajir gave baya to the newly created Islamic State of Iraq’s leader Abu ‘Umar al-Baghdadi and even after Abu ‘Umar was killed, when Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi took over in 2010 and then Usamah Bin Laden was killed in 2011, Abu Bakr never publicly gave baya to Ayman al-Zawahiri, even if al-Zawahiri claims he gave it to him privately. Therefore, from the perspective of IS this whole process is not trivial, but important for legitimacy of its leadership and to potentially weed out any insubordination before it manifests into something larger as it already did in the past vis-a-vis AQ.

This post will be updated with the latest official pledges.

December 1, 2022: 

Wilāyat Gharb Ifrīqīyah – Sambisa Region

Wilāyat Khurāsān

Wilāyat al-‘Irāq

Wilāyat Gharb Ifrīqīyah – al-Buhayrah Region

December 2:

Wilāyat Gharb Ifrīqīyah – al-Faruq Region

Wilāyat al-Shām

Wilāyat Gharb Ifrīqīyah – Banki Region

December 3: 

Wilāyat al-Yaman

Wilāyat Gharb Ifrīqīyah – Krenoa Region

Wilāyat al-‘Irāq

Wilāyat al-Sāḥil – Azawagh, Tri-Border, and Burkina Faso Regions

December 4: 

Wilāyat al-Ṣūmāl

Wilāyat Wasaṭ Ifrīqīyah

Wilāyat al-Sāḥil – Anderamboukane Village

December 5:

Wilāyat Gharb Ifrīqīyah – Central Nigeria

Wilāyat al-Shām

Wilāyat Bākistān

Wilāyat Mūzambīq

Wilāyat Wasaṭ Ifrīqīyah – Beni Region

December 7, 2022:

Tūnis

Wilāyat al-Hind – Kashmir

Wilāyat Mūzambīq – Nangade Region

December 8, 2022:

Lubnān

December 14, 2022:

Wilāyat Saynā’

December 17, 2022:

Wilāyat Sharq Asīā

December 19:

Wilāyat Lībīyā

New video message from The Islamic State: “And The [Best] Outcome Is For The Righteous – Wilāyat Wasaṭ Ifrīqīyyah”

For prior parts in this video series see: Wilāyat al-Ṣūmāl, TūnisWilāyat TurkīyāWilāyat LībīyāAzerbaijanWilāyat KhurāsānWilāyat al-QawqāzWilāyat Sharq AsīāWilāyat Saynā’, and Wilāyat Gharb Ifrīqīyyah. The title of this release is in reference to a part of Qur’anic verses 7:128, 11:49, and 28:83.

_________________

Source: Telegram

To inquire about a translation for this video message for a fee email: [email protected]

Wilayat Wasat Ifriqiya Extends Its Presence to Mozambique

For an archive of other backgrounders click here.

Earlier this week, under the Islamic State’s Wilayat Wasat Ifriqya (Central African Province), which itself is new, announced attacks for the first time in Mozambique. This is not necessarily surprising considering the expansion strategy IS has undertaken since the fall of Baghouz, Syria in March 2019. Yet rumors of IS’s presence in Mozambique goes back at least a year. There has also been rising violence and militancy in Mozambique’s north now for a couple of years. Therefore, it is unsurprising that IS would attempt to co-opt and/or take advantage of the situation to further build out its presence in Africa as well as remain more relevant as it attempts to rebuild itself in its core territories of Iraq and Syria. As with any form of militancy, while this might seem like it came out of nowhere, there is always a background and evolution to this phenomenon as will be seen in this post.

For now, you will find details below on what we know about extremism and militancy in Mozambique prior to this IS announcement. If anyone wants to add anything to the following dossier let me know and I will post it so there is a fuller picture. From oldest to most recent.

October 5, 2017:

Attack in Mozambique leaves two police officers dead

October 7, 2017:

16 killed as Islamic gunmen attack Mozambique police

October 31, 2017:

Mozambique’s first Islamist attacks shock the region – ISS Africa

March 29, 2018:

VIDEO: A new radicalized ‘Al Shabab – Boko Haram’, but this time in Mozambique – Al Arabiya English

April 13, 2018:

Isis fighters infiltrate neighbouring Mozambique – The Citizen

May 24, 2018:

AU confirms ISIS infiltration in countries — Shabelle

May 29, 2018:

Suspected Islamists behead 10 in Mozambique: local sources

June 2, 2018:

How Mozambique’s smuggling barons nurtured jihadists – BBC News

June 3, 2018:

Police kill nine ‘insurgents’ in Mozambique

June 5, 2018:

Attackers hack seven to death in Mozambique – Al Jazeera

June 11, 2018:

Mozambique’s own version of Boko Haram is tightening its deadly grip

June 11, 2018:

Experts Alarmed at Rise of Jihadi Terrorism in Mozambique

June 13, 2018:

Mozambique jihadists lay siege to once sleepy villages

June 14, 2018:

Le Mozambique face à son « Boko Haram »

Is another Boko Haram or al-Shabaab erupting in Mozambique – ISS Africa

Ansar al-Sunna: A New Militant Islamist Group Emerges in Mozambique – Jamestown

June 17, 2018:

New jihadist group behind spate of attacks in northern Mozambique – France 24

June 20, 2018:

Mozambique’s own version of Boko Haram is tightening its deadly grip – The Independent

Shadowy insurgents threaten Mozambique gas bonanza – Financial Times

June 21, 2018:

Islamist Terrorism in Mozambique: An Emerging Threat?

June 22, 2018:

Mozambique’s mysterious insurgency – M&G

July 25, 2018:

Beheadings in Mozambique mark Islamist threat in new gas frontier – Reuters

July 30, 2018:

Emerging Militant Group Threatens Villages, Gas Projects in Mozambique – WSJ

August 3, 2018:

‘Kidnapped’ SA man actually arrested for ‘terrorism links’ in Mozambique – The Citizen

August 8, 2018:

A bubbling Islamist insurgency in Mozambique could grow deadlier – Burnings and beheadings

August 13, 2018:

Mozambique police name ‘ringleaders’ behind Islamist threat – Reuters

September 21, 2018:

At least 12 killed, 14 wounded in Mozambique jihadist attacks: source – News24

October 5, 2018:

Mozambique’s Next Step in Countering Violent Extremism – Africa Up Close

November 20, 2018:

Mozambique’s apparent Islamist insurgency poses multiple threats – ISS Africa

November 25, 2018: 

Mozambique – 12 personnes tuées par des islamistes présumés – Africanews

November 26, 2018:

Suspected Al-Shabab militants kill 12 in north Mozambique — Shabelle

December 19, 2018:

Mozambique: Jihadist Violence Continues to Rise in Cabo Delgado

January 11, 2019:

Opaque insurgency grinds on in gas-rich Mozambican region

January 15, 2019:

Suspected jihadists kill 12 in northern Mozambique | News24

February 8, 2019:

Nouvelle attaque islamiste meurtrière au Mozambique, des femmes enlevées

February 22, 2019:

1 mort et 6 blessés au Mozambique au cours d’attaques jihadistes présumées contre Anadarko

March 16, 2019:

Suspected jihadists kill 13 in northern Mozambique » Manila Bulletin News

April 5, 2019:

Mozambique – Ansar al-Sunna Attack on Foreign Workers Raises Concerns of Growing Insurgency

April 26, 2019:

40-year jail term for 10 terrorists in northern Mozambique – Africanews

Alleged Islamic State fighters in Mozambique resurfaced on April 25, 2019: Does it warrant any concerns? – ITCT

April 29, 2019:

The faceless insurgency in Mozambique that no one can explain – M&G

May 16, 2019:

In Africa, All Jihad Is Local – Foreign Policy

May 17, 2019:

Evaluating the Expansion of Global Jihadist Movements in Mozambique – Jamestown

May 31, 2019:

16 killed in Mozambique insurgency attack: local sources – News24

June 4, 2019:

June 5, 2019: