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Check out my new article at Hudson Institute’s Current Trends in Islamist Ideology: “Remaining, Waiting for Expansion (Again): The Islamic State’s Operations in Iraq and Syria”

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

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Over the past few years, focus on the Islamic State has rightfully expanded beyond its original territorial holdings in Iraq and Syria. Many of the activities that animated the organization’s core have been carbon copied to varying degrees by its global provincial network, with IS’s General Directorate of Provinces encouraging territorial control and governance, foreign fighter mobilization, and external operations planning.1 Today, the Islamic State controls territory and has governance projects at different levels in four African countries—Mali, Nigeria, Somalia, and Mozambique—as well as small foreign fighter mobilizations in these countries and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.2 More immediate from a Western security perspective is the growth in external operations from the Islamic State’s Khurasan Province (ISKP).3 These issues will continue to remain at the forefront of security discussions related to the future of the Islamic State. However, the original Islamic State base in Iraq and Syria remains relevant due to its historical importance and the uncertain status quo in the region since Islamic State lost full territorial control in Syria in 2019, especially when considering the future of U.S. military presence in the region.

On September 6, 2024, the United States and Iraq reached an agreement on plans to withdraw the U.S.-led “Global Coalition Against Daesh” forces from Iraq and Syria.4 Under this plan, there would be an initial withdrawal of troops from Iraq proper by September 2025, with the remainder leaving Iraqi Kurdistan by the end of 2026. This would also mean, in effect, a withdrawal from Syria.5 This will have monumental ramifications for the fight against the Islamic State in its original area of operations.

To better assess the current and future status of the Islamic State in these two countries, this paper leverages various data streams to provide a holistic picture of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria today. Each country features different dynamics, of course. Yet, by exploring Islamic State attack dynamics from various sources (including addressing the issue of underreporting claims in Syria) and publicly disclosed arrest details (local arrests as well as international arrests related to external operations), and continued shadow governance in eastern Syria, this report highlights how the Islamic State has attempted to recover over the past five years and seeks to take advantage of future change in regional dynamics.

Today, the Islamic State in Iraq is the weakest it has ever been, but the Islamic State in Syria has shown signs of building itself back up. Therefore, by understanding the current state of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, we can gain a greater understanding of the organization’s historic power base, its global expansion, and why it is not a relic of the past.

Click here to read the rest.

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Check out my new article for War on the Rocks: “The Patient Efforts Behind Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Success in Aleppo”

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

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“God willing,” the militant told his lieutenants, they would “be able to celebrate Eid al-Fitr in Aleppo and Damascus soon.” That militant was Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — the Islamist coalition that took Aleppo by storm last week. As it turns out, his remarks — delivered in April to the leaders of his group’s militant wing — were not mere whimsy. He had a plan. And Eid al-Fitr is still four months away.

It has become a common refrain in recent days that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was able to take Syria’s second largest city in a matter of days only because of Russia’s distractions elsewhere and the hammering the so-called Axis of Resistance has taken since the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel. To be sure, that is part of the story alongside a weak regime, but only a part. This would not have been possible had Hayat Tahrir al-Sham not transformed itself over the last four and a half years.

From the March 2020 ceasefire in Syria to last month, Jawlani made concerted efforts to build more resilient institutions locally and reform Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s governance and military apparatuses. Jawlani believed that the space given post-ceasefire would help build greater capacity and experience locally in what they call the “Liberated Areas” so when the time was ripe, the coalition would be able to export these institutions to the rest of Syria as Jawlani described back in July 2022. So far in Aleppo, it seems like they have been able to scale up these institutions quickly, with civilians already taking control of governance days after its military apparatus took the city. How much more territory Hayat Tahrir al-Sham can take remains an open question, but either way, the model built in northwest Syria will be carbon-copied to the new “Liberated Areas” as it consolidates its control.

Click here to read the rest.

New fatwā from Hay’at Taḥrīr al-Shām’s General Administration of Islamic Guidance: “Will the Green Revolution Banner Be Steadfast Or Will the Banner of Tawḥīd Be Raised?”

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

السؤال: نحسنُ الظنَّ بالله تعالى بأننا على موعدٍ قريبٍ بزوال الطاغية وأن يحكم البلد حكم إسلامي، لكن بالنسبه للراية؛ هل سيتم الثبات ع راية الثورة الخضراء أم سيتم رفع راية التوحيد؟

الجواب: الحمد لله، وبعد: الراية هي الغاية والمقصد، وأما (العلم) فلقد تعددت رايات النبي ﷺ ولم يثبت على واحدة، بل كان للقبائل راياتٌ مختلفةٌ مع اتحاد مقصدها وهدفها، وهو إعلاء كلمة التوحيد.

فالمعنى الذي يُستحضر هو: غاية المقاتل ورغبته، ونحن بحمد لله نعيش أياماً من أيام الله، والتي سُحق فيها سُلطان الظلم والكفر، وحلَّ بدلاً عنه سُلطان وحُكم المسلمين، ثم لا ضير بعدها إن كانت (الراية) خضراء أو حمراء.

اللّجنة العلميّة في الإدارة العامّة للتّوجيه الشّرعي

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Source: Telegram

To inquire about a translation for this fatwā for a fee email: [email protected]

New fatwā from Hay’at Taḥrīr al-Shām’s General Administration of Islamic Guidance: “What Is the Ruling On What Shaykh al-Jawlān Said About Parliamentary Rule?”

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

السؤال: ما حكم ما قاله الشيخ الجولاني عن الحكم البرلماني؟

الجواب: الحمد لله، وبعد: فعندما سُئِل الشيخ عن مستقبل سوريا، لم يذكر البرلمان، بل ذكر بناء المؤسسات من المجالس الاستشارية، والشورية، والقانون والدستور، وكلها ذكرها في ضمن الحديث عن الحكم الإسلامي، وعليه فإن الجواب عن السؤال سيكون في النقاط التالية:

أولاً: لقد دافع الشيخ عن الحكم الإسلامي ولم يتنصّل منه، وحدد المشكلة التي تُثار حوله وهي إما نابعة في الفهم له أو الممارسات الخاطئة، وما أكثرها للأسف!

ثانياً: بيّن الشيخ الحلَّ، وأنه من خلال وجود قوانين ناظمة تحدد الحقوق والواجبات، وتكون بلا شكٍ غير مخالفةٍ للشريعة الإسلامية ومتوافقةٍ معها بعد التشاور مع أهل الحل والعقد وأهل العلم والفتوى.

وهذا هو الحل الصحيح والأمثل لحلِّ المشاكل التي ورَّثها النظام المجرم لعموم السوريين، والذي حاول فعلاً خلط الأوراق من خلالها.

وهاتان النقطتان ذكرهما د. مظهر الويس في تعليقٍ له على المقابلة:

https://t.me/alshameealshamee/132

ثالثاً: البرلمان في نفسه ليس محذوراً ولا منكراً، بل المنكر هو جعله منبراً للتشريع من دون الله.

فأما إذا كان مجلساً لتشريع الأمور الدنيوية ونحوها مما لا يعارض شرع الله، فليس فيه أكثر من كونه مجلساً للشورى، وهو من الأمور التي حثَّ عليها الشرع الكريم، فقال تعالى: {وَأَمرُهُمۡ شُورَىٰ بَينَهُمۡ}[الشورى: ٣٨].

رابعاً: الواجب على المسلمين إحسان الظن بإخوانهم جميعاً، ومن بابٍ أولى إحسان الظن بقيادتهم التي ما رأوا منها في خلال سنوات الجهاد الماضية إلا كل خير، وأن يحملوا ما يرونه و يسمعونه على أحسن محامله وأقربها لما علموه من صدقهم وحرصهم على أمر المسلمين.

ونسأل الله تعالى أن يلهم المجاهدين وقادتهم رشدهم ويسددهم ويصوبهم في كل شأنهم، إنه سميع قريب مجيب، والحمد لله رب العالمين.

اللّجنة العلميّة في الإدارة العامّة للتّوجيه الشّرعي

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Source: Telegram

New video message from Hay’at Taḥrīr al-Shām’s Aḥmad al-Shar’a (Abū Muḥammad al-Jawlānī): “A Speech By the Commander-in-Chief of the Administration of Military Operations From the Great Umayyad Mosque In the Capital Damascus”

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

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Source: Telegram

To inquire about a translation for this video message for a fee email: [email protected]

New statement from the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan: “Ministry of Foreign Affairs: On the Recent Developments In Syria”

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

Arabic:

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan — “Ministry of Foreign Affairs- On the Recent Developments In Syria

Pashto:

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan — “Ministry of Foreign Affairs- On the Recent Developments In Syria (Pashto)

English:

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan — “Ministry of Foreign Affairs- On the Recent Developments In Syria (En)

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New statement from the Teḥrīk-ī-Ṭālibān Pākistān: “Congratulations To Our Brothers In al-Shām”

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

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Arabic:

Teḥrīk-ī-Ṭālibān Pākistān — Congratulations To Our Brothers In al-Shām

Urdu:

Teḥrīk-ī-Ṭālibān Pākistān — Congratulations To Our Brothers In al-Shām (Ur)

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Source: Telegram

To inquire about a translation for this statement for a fee email: [email protected]

New statement from Hay’at Taḥrīr al-Shām’s Abū Muḥammad al-Jawlānī: “We Are Moving Towards Victory, God Willing”

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

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Click the following link for a safe PDF copy: Abū Muḥammad al-Jawlānī — We Are Moving Towards Victory, God Willing

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Source: Telegram

To inquire about a translation for this statement for a fee email: [email protected]

New issue of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s magazine: “al-Ṣumūd Magazine #228″

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

For prior issues in this magazine see: #227, #226, #225, #224, #223, #222, #221, #220, #219, #218, #217, #216, #215, #214, #213, #212, #211, #209/210, #208, #207, #206, #205, #204, #203, #202-201, #200, #199, #198, #197, #196, #195, #194, #193, #192, #191, #190, #189, #188, #187, #186, #185, #184, #183, #182, #181, #180, #179, #178,  #177, #176, #175, #174, #173, #172, #171, #170, #169, #168, #167, #166, #165, #164, #163, #162, #161, #160, #159, #158, #157, #156, #155, #154, #153, #152, #151, #150, #149, #148, #147, #146, #145, #144, #143, #142, #141, #140, #139, #138, #137, #136, #135, #134, #133, #132, #131, #130, #129, #128, #127, #126, #125, #124, #123, #122, #121,#120, #119,#118,#117,#116,#115,#114, #113, #112, #111, #110, #109, #108, #107, #106, #105, #104, #103,#102,#101,#100,#99, #98, #97, #96,#95, #94, #93, #92,#91, #90, #89, #88, #87, #86, #85, #84, #83, #82, #81, #80, #79, #78, #77, #76, #75, #74, #73, #72, #71, #70, #69, #68, #67, #66, #65, #64, #63, #62, #61, #60, #59, #58, #57, #56, #53, and #51.

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Click the following link for a safe PDF copy: Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan — al-Ṣumūd Magazine #228

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To inquire about a translation for this magazine issue for a fee email: [email protected]