New issue of The Islamic State’s newsletter: “al-Nabā’ #418″

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

For prior newsletter issues see: #417, #416, #415, #414, #413, #412, #411, #410, #409, #408, #407, #406, #405, #404, #403, #402, #401, #400, #399, #398, #397, #396, #395, #394,  #393, #392, #391, #390, #389, #388, #387, #386, #385, #384, #383, #382, #381, #380, #379, #378, #377, #376, #375, #374, #373, #372, #371, #370, #369, #368, #367, #366, #365, #364, #363, #362, #361, #360, #359, #358, #357, #356, #355, #354, #353, #352, #351, #350, #349, #348, #347, #346, #345, #344, #343, #342, #341, #340, #339, #338, #337, #336, #335, #334, #333, #332, #331, #330, #329, #328, #327, #326, #325, #324, #323, #322, #321, #320, #319, #318, #317, #316, #315, #314, #313,  #312, #311, #310, #309, #308, #307, #306, #305, #304, #303, #302, #301, #300, #299, #298, #297, #296, #295, #294, #293, #292, #291, #290, #289, #288, #287, #286, #285, #284, #283, #282, #281, #280, #279, #278, #277, #276, #275, #274, #273, #272, #271, #270, #269, #268, #267, #266, #265, #264, #263, #262, #261, #260, #259, #258, #257, #256, #255, #254, #253, #252, #251, #250, #249, #248, #247, #246, #245, #244, #243, #242, #241, #240, #239, #238, #237, #236, #235, #234, #233, #232, #231, #230, #229, #228, #227, #226, #225, #224, #223, #222, #221, #220, #219, #218, #217, #216, #215, #214, #213, #212, #211, #210, #209, #208, #207, #206, #205, #204, #203, #202, #201, #200, #199, #198, #197, #196, #195, #194, #193, #192, #191, #190, #189, #188, #187, #186, #185, #184, #183, #182, #181, #180, #179, #178, #177, #176, #175, #174, #173, #172, #171, #170, #169, #168, #167, #166, #165, #164, #163, #162, #161, #160, #159, #158, #157, #156, #155, #154, #153, #152, #151, #150, #149, #148, #147, #146, #145, #144, #143, #142, #141, #140, #139, #138, #137, #136, #135, #134, #133, #132, #131, #130, #129, #128, #127, #126, #125, #124, #123, #122, #121, #120, #119, #118, #117, #116, #115, #114, #113, #112, #111, #110, #109, #108, #107, #106, #105, #104, #103, #102, #101, #100, #99, #98, #97, #96, #95, #94, #93, #92, #91, #90, #89, #88, #87, #86, #85, #84, #83, #82, #81, #80, #79, #78, #77, #76, #75, #74, #73, #72, #71, #70, #69, #68, #67, #66, #65, #64, #63, #62, #61, #60, #59, #58, #57, #56, #55, #54, #53, #52, #51, #50, #49, #48, #47, #46, #45, #44, #43, #42, #41, #40, #39, #38, #37, #36, #35, #34, #33, #32, #31, #30, #29, #28, #27, #26, #25, #24, #23, #22, #21, #20, #19, #18, #17, #16, #15, #14, #13, #12, #11, #10, #9, #8, #7, #6, #5, #4, #3, #2, and #1.

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Click the following link for a safe PDF copy: The Islamic State — al-Nabā’ Newsletter #418

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Source: RocketChat

To inquire about a translation for this newsletter issue for a fee email: [email protected]

New statement from the Teḥrīk-ī-Ṭālibān Pākistān: “Declaration Regarding the Start of Undeclared War By State Institutions!”

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

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Click the following link for a safe PDF copy: Teḥrīk-ī-Ṭālibān Pākistān — Declaration Regarding the Start of Undeclared War By State Institutions!

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Source: Telegram

To inquire about a translation for this statement for a fee email: [email protected]

New magazine issue: “al-Balāgh Magazine #55″

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

For prior magazine issues see: #54, #53, #52, #51, #50, #49, #48, #47, #46, #45, #44, #43, #42, #41, #40, #39, #38, #37, #36, #35, #34, #33, #32, #31, #30, #29, #28, #27, #26, #25, #24, #23, #22, #21, #20, #19, #18, #17, #16, #15, #14, #13, #12, #11, #10, #9, #8, #7, #6, #5, #4, #3, #2, and #1.

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Click the following link for a safe PDF copy: al-Balāgh Magazine Issue #55

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Source: Telegram

To inquire about a translation for this magazine issue for a fee email: [email protected]

New issue from al-Qā’idah’s bulletin: “al-Nafīr #38″

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

For prior issues of the bulletin see: #37, #36, #35, #34, #33, #32, #31, #30, #29, #28, #27, #26, #25, #24, #23, #22, #21, #20, #19, #18, #17, #16, #15, #14, #13, #12, #11, #10, #9, #8, #7, #6, #5, #4, #3, #2, and #1.

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Click the following link for a safe PDF copy: al-Qā’idah — al-Nafīr Bulletin #38

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Source: Telegram

To inquire about a translation for this bulletin issue for a fee email: [email protected]

New statement from the Teḥrīk-ī-Ṭālibān Pākistān: “Condolences On the Incident That Happened To the Relatives of Mawlānā Dr. Manẓūr Aḥmad Ḥafiẓ Allah”

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

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Click the following link for a safe PDF copy: Teḥrīk-ī-Ṭālibān Pākistān — Condolences On the Incident That Happened To the Relatives of Mawlānā Dr. Manẓūr Aḥmad Ḥafiẓ Allah

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Source: Telegram

To inquire about a translation for this statement for a fee email: [email protected]

New issue from al-Qā’idah’s bulletin: “al-Nafīr #37″

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

For prior issues of the bulletin see: #36, #35, #34, #33, #32, #31, #30, #29, #28, #27, #26, #25, #24, #23, #22, #21, #20, #19, #18, #17, #16, #15, #14, #13, #12, #11, #10, #9, #8, #7, #6, #5, #4, #3, #2, and #1.

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Click the following link for a safe PDF copy: al-Qā’idah — al-Nafīr Bulletin #37

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Source: Telegram

To inquire about a translation for this bulletin issue for a fee email: [email protected]

New magazine issue from The Islamic State’s Wilāyat Khurāsān: “Voice of Khurāsān #30″

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

For prior issues see: #29, #28, #27, #26, #25, #24, #23, #22, #21, #20, #19, #18, #17, #16, #15, #14, #13, #12, #11, #10, #9, #8, #7, #6, #5, #4, #3, #2, and #1.

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Click the following link for a safe PDF copy: The Islamic State’s Wilāyat Khurāsān — “Voice of Khurāsān #30

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Source: RocketChat

New statement from al-Qā’idah’s General Command: “Concerning the Zionist-Crusader War Against Gaza’s Hospitals and the Slaughter of Thousands of Sick, Wounded, and Innocent Premature Babies”

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

Click the following link for a safe PDF copy: al-Qā’idah’s General Command — Concerning the Zionist-Crusader War Against Gaza’s Hospitals and the Slaughter of Thousands of Sick, Wounded, and Innocent Premature Babies

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Source: Telegram

To inquire about a translation for this statement for a fee email: [email protected]

Check out my new academic journal article at Political Analysis with Roberto Cerina, Christopher Barrie, Neil Ketchley: “Explaining Recruitment to Extremism: A Bayesian Hierarchical Case–Control Approach”

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

Abstract:

Who joins extremist movements? Answering this question is beset by methodological challenges as survey techniques are infeasible and selective samples provide no counterfactual. Recruits can be assigned to contextual units, but this is vulnerable to problems of ecological inference. In this article, we elaborate a technique that combines survey and ecological approaches. The Bayesian hierarchical case–control design that we propose allows us to identify individual-level and contextual factors patterning the incidence of recruitment to extremism, while accounting for spatial autocorrelation, rare events, and contamination. We empirically validate our approach by matching a sample of Islamic State (ISIS) fighters from nine MENA countries with representative population surveys enumerated shortly before recruits joined the movement. High-status individuals in their early twenties with college education were more likely to join ISIS. There is more mixed evidence for relative deprivation. The accompanying extremeR package provides functionality for applied researchers to implement our approach.

Click here to read the article in full.