Katībat ‘Uqbah Ibn Nāfi’

Check out my new article for the Hoover Institution’s ‘The Caravan’: “All Quiet on the North African Jihadi Front”

Posted on June 6, 2023June 14, 2023 by Aaron Y. Zelin

In the aftermath of the 2011 Arab uprisings, North Africa (Libya and Tunisia in particular) became a flashpoint for large-scale jihadi mobilization. Yet more than a decade later, both countries and the region, in general, are relatively quiet–at least with regard to jihadism–in contrast to the growing strength of the jihadi movement in sub-Saharan Africa. Tracing the evolution of the movement and its current state in North Africa offers insights into its prospects for the future.

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Check out my new ‘Policy Watch’ for the Washington Institute: “Saied’s Tunisia Is Politicizing Counterterrorism Again”

Posted on March 9, 2023March 17, 2023 by Aaron Y. Zelin

Ever since President Kais Saied’s July 2021 coup, the professionalized Tunisian counterterrorism apparatus that emerged after the 2011 revolution has become increasingly politicized, auguring a return to the methodologies of former leader Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. If this trajectory continues, it will undermine efforts to keep a lid on Tunisia’s jihadist movement, which continues to pose threats today even though they are far less acute than those seen from 2012 to 2019.

Beyond its moral and human aspects, this descent holds sobering implications for U.S. assistance. From 2013 to 2021, Washington sank at least $30 million into reforming Tunisia’s counterterrorism system, much of this coming after the country was hit by large-scale attacks in 2015-16. Another $20 million was provided for military education and training, along with around $100 million for law enforcement reform. Tunisian counterterrorism may not be the top-line issue it once was, but the scope of U.S. expenditures lends extra urgency to addressing Saied’s backslide.

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Check out my new ‘Policy Watch’ for the Washington Institute: “Tunisian Jihadism in the Shadow of a Coup”

Posted on March 3, 2022March 11, 2022 by Aaron Y. Zelin

As the threat of jihadist attacks in Tunisia faded to a manageable issue in recent years, reforms related to professionalization, transparency, and rule of law became central to moving the country’s counterterrorism architecture forward. Yet last year’s coup by President Kais Saied raised new questions about this progress, with observers wondering whether his authoritarian instincts would lead counterterrorism to be politicized as it was prior to the 2011 revolution.

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Check out my new ‘Policy Watch’ for the Washington Institute: “Tunisia Turns a Corner Against the Jihadist Movement”

Posted on January 30, 2020February 3, 2020 by Aaron Y. Zelin

For the first time since its 2011 revolution, Tunisia is not on the defensive in its battle with the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. Data from 2019, paired with a more holistic approach to combating jihadists, bears out this claim. Specifically, Tunis is expanding its toolkit beyond a purely military or law enforcement approach. Because of these advances, which have developed over the past few years, Tunis and Washington will have widened opportunities to engage on more complex aspects of reform that could make Tunisia a regional and global model. Both internal and external challenges remain, such as from foreign fighters dwelling abroad, an overcrowded prison system, and the threat of resurgent jihadism next door in Libya, but these need not diminish the accomplishments. Moreover, Tunisia can now build on its achievements, continuing the process of reform after decades of authoritarian rule.

SUCCESSES

At the beginning of 2019, according to the United Nations, only eighty jihadist insurgents remained in the mountainous region along the Tunisian border with Algeria—fifty from Katibat Uqba ibn Nafi, al-Qaeda’s Tunisian branch, and thirty from the Islamic State. Over the remainder of 2019, Tunisia’s military further degraded both groups by killing a number of their leaders:

From the Islamic State: Izz al-Din Alawi, Hatim Basduri, Muhammad Basduri, Mundhir Gharsali, Muntasar Ghuzlani, Muhammad Amin Mahkuka, Muhammad Nasir Mubarki, Lakhzar Nasiri, Hossam Thalithi, Ghali Umri
From Katibat Uqba ibn Nafi: al-Bay al-Akruf, Tahar Hijili, Salah al-Din Qasimi, Usama Salmi, Murad al-Shayeb

The year 2019 also saw a decline in attacks, even though the overall numbers appear to show them on par with 2018. Before an improvised explosive device strike in January 2020, no attack had occurred since late October, the lengthiest lull since 2012–2013 (see table below). The arrest figures, which have also fallen, reflect smarter, intelligence-led policing that the Tunisian government began to implement more directly in October 2018. The previous “roundup” style was a holdover from the pre-revolution era.

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New statement from al-Qā’idah in the Islamic Maghrib: “Regarding the Destruction of the Tyrant of Tunisia al-Sabsī”

Posted on July 26, 2019July 27, 2019 by Aaron Y. Zelin

Click the following link for a safe PDF copy: al-Qā’idah in the Islamic Maghrib — Regarding the Destruction of the Tyrant of Tunisia al-Sabsī

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Source: Telegram

To inquire about a translation for this statement for a fee email: [email protected]

Tunisia’s National Guard Arrests and Kills Four Jihadis This Week

Posted on May 5, 2019May 8, 2019 by Aaron Y. Zelin

Your Sons Are At Your Service: Tunisia’s Missionaries of Jihad

This week, there were two different incidents wherein the Tunisian National Guard took down four Tunisian jihadis. The first occurred on Wednesday May 1 in Jabal Chambi in Kassserine Governorate when it arrested Katibat ‘Uqbah Bin Nafi member Ra’id Bin ‘Iz al-Din Bin al-Az’ar Tawati. Based on interviews with him after his arrest, the Tunisian government claims that it helped thwart forthcoming attacks that would have happened during Ramadan. The nature of these attacks (against civilian versus the security sector) is indiscernible based on reporting. However, KUBN’s track record suggests it would likely have been against members of Tunisia’s security forces.

The second incident happened yesterday, Saturday May 4 in Sidi Ali Ben Aoun, a town 25 miles southwest of Sidi Bouzid. It was a preventative action by the National Guard, which led to the killing of three Islamic State members: Muhammad Bin Ibrahim Bin Salih al-Basduri, Hatim Bin al-‘Id Bin Muhammad Basduri, and Muntasar Bin Kharif Bin Muhammad Jaridi Ghuzlani. Following their deaths, the National Guard recovered two Kalashnikovs, a “Steyr” firearm, a homemade grenade, and an explosive belt. Tunisian security would also later arrest a forest ranger this morning since the truck used by the three jihadis last night belonged to him.

So who are these four individuals specifically and what have they been up to with KUBN and IS over the years?

To read the rest of this post, which includes details on the four individuals, click here.

Check out my new peer-reviewed academic journal article in Perspectives on Terrorism: “Not Gonna Be Able To Do It: al-Qaeda in Tunisia’s Inability to Take Advantage of the Islamic State’s Setbacks”

Posted on February 22, 2019 by Aaron Y. Zelin

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Abstract

This article examines Katibat Uqba Bin Nafi, al-Qaeda/al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghrib’s official branch in Tunisia. It sheds light on an unexplored case study on jihadi groups in recent times by investigating its history and forthcoming prospects. Moreover, it plans to use this article as an avenue to weigh in on the debate within jihadi studies on the future of al-Qaeda and if it can take advantage of the Islamic State’s misfortunes in Iraq and Syria as well as Libya. The latter of which has more direct impact on IS’s network in Tunisia. The article interrogates a number of Arabic primary sources that have yet to be surveyed from KUBN and AQIM that will help clarify these inquiries. It will identify shortcomings in KUBN’s capacities and highlight reasons why IS will likely remain a more attractive avenue for jihadi mobilization in Tunisia going forward. This is relevant since much of the debate on AQ’s status analyzes the topic from more of a macro level than looking at specific groups within its broader global network. This research will illustrate that while the consensus might be that AQ is primed to benefit from IS’s setbacks, in the case of Tunisia, unless conditions change locally, KUBN is unlikely to follow the same trend as other AQ branches or when evaluating AQ as a whole.

Click here for the full article (15 pages).

New release from al-Qā’idah in the Islamic Maghrib: “Martyrs of the Islamic Maghrib #20: True To What They Promised God: Biography of Abū Sakhr”

Posted on February 7, 2019 by Aaron Y. Zelin

Part of the title of this release is in reference to Qur’anic verse 33:23. Here it is in full: “Among the believers are men true to what they promised God. Among them is he who has fulfilled his vow [to the death], and among them is he who awaits [his chance]. And they did not alter [the terms of their commitment] by any alteration.”

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For prior parts in this martyrdom series see: #19, #18, #17, #16, #15, #14, #13, #12, #11, #10, #9, #8, #7, #6, #5, #4, #3, #2, and #1.