New release from Iḥsān Allah Iḥsān: “U.S.-Ṭālibān Peace Deal: What Will Be the Future of Other Jihādī Organizations In the Region?”

The Afghan people’s hopes for peace were revived when an agreement was reached between the United States and the Taliban in Qatar, according to which the prisoner exchange was to be completed in ten days to pave the way for intra-Afghan peace talks. It took several months for the exchange of prisoners to take place, which further prolonged the wait of the Afghan people. The process has begun, thus fulfilling the aspirations of the Afghan people for peace, one step closer, although the process of intra-Afghan negotiations will be extremely difficult and lengthy because of the factors of war, including the formation of a new system and government. All issues related to prevention and future will be discussed. As the dialogue progresses, the parties’ priorities and future policies become clearer, but there are many challenges along the way, especially the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (Afghan Taliban). The challenge for the Taliban will be to deal with non-Afghan mujahideen and organizations in the future because the Taliban have assured the United States in the Qatar Agreement that they will not allow their territory to be used against any other country and that al Qaeda and others International jihadist organizations will end their ties, but it will not be easy because the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan will have to face two major organizations (Al Qaeda and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan) with which they have had very close ties in the past. These organizations not only supported the Islamic Emirate as supreme but also played the role of Ansar during the fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan especially when some migrated to Pakistan and needed assistance. Al-Qaeda is the only organization for which Amir al-Mu’minin Mullah Muhammad Omar Mujahid (may God have mercy on him) ended his government. He did not hand over leader, Osama bin Laden to the United States, as the US refused to provide proof of involvement in 9/11 which was requested by Islamic Emirate. In the current situation, the leadership of the Islamic Emirate will face a major test because if we look at the manifesto of Al Qaeda and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, then Al-Qaeda is a global jihad while Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan is a believer in jihadi activities inside Pakistan. It would be unacceptable for the Afghan Taliban to abandon these activities or to impose any rules and regulations to limit their activities if these organizations show loyalty and are supported by the Islamic Emirate. The day-to-day rules for their stay in Afghanistan may be accepted, but it will be impossible for them to back away from their goals. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan recently sent a delegation to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. This was to brief the TTP leadership on the upcoming situation and the newly formulated principles that the Afghan Taliban had formulated for foreign fighters and organizations in which these organizations were to have a complete record of all their fighters, collecting their personal identification details and photo. Included in the new rules were the following, do not use a man against any other country, adhere to the organizational policy and charter of the Islamic Emirate, do not recruit new fighters, stay in the place designated by the Afghan Taliban and tell the Taliban about your movements. There were a number of other strict conditions, including alerting the intelligence wing.

TTP leadership, after listening to these conditions and after a brief consultation, rejected them as unworkable and informed the delegation of the Islamic Emirate of its decision. Although Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid denied this after my tweet on the subject, But I have all the necessary evidence to substantiate my claim.
I think this is the first time that TTP leadership has refused to obey the orders of the Islamic Emirate(if they had accepted these conditions) it would have had to abandon the military struggle against Pakistan, which is its main objective and the first part of its manifesto. In this way, the existence of TTP would be jeopardized and its very purpose of survival lost. On the other hand, there are groups and commanders within TTP who have a very strong stance against Pakistan and have never been in favour of negotiation. The stance has always been that they will not hesitate to revolt and continue their struggle.  Recent developments and discussions have also reinforced the statement within the Pakistani Taliban that the imposition of conditions by the Islamic Emirate is at the behest of Pakistan. Some commanders believe that the Pakistani military is rapidly re-engaging operations inside Pakistan and the institutions are worried, so they are using the Afghan Taliban as a tactic to silence TTP. If this impression persists, it will create more distance between TTP and the Islamic Emirate in the long run. Until then, ideologically, we think that the relationship between the two great powers will not improve in any way. What are the options for the leadership of the Islamic Emirate and the TTP in this complex situation and what should they do to get out of this situation? I think the first option might be to try to mediate between TTP and the government of Pakistan as a mediator after peace in Afghanistan and after the Islamic Emirate comes to power or joins Afghanistan. It should try to find a peaceful solution and persuade TTP to become part of Pakistan’s political system as is now being developed for peace in Afghanistan. The second option may be that after the Taliban comes to power, all foreign fighters and organizations should be offered Afghan citizenship and offered to become a peaceful part of Afghan society. In addition efforts should be made to create a good atmosphere at the international level to make the world aware of the delicacy and seriousness of this issue. Also, the countries whose fighters are in Afghanistan should be responsible for all the needs and expenses incurred in this regard if this option is implemented. Al-Qaeda’s case is different from the TTP’s. Their front and ideology is global jihad, so they will try to manage themselves. It is possible that al-Qaeda will call its fighters to the fronts where they have some degree of rule. In addition, if Afghan Taliban try to eliminate or silence other groups by force, their own reputation could be negatively affected, especially in jihadi circles. The situation would turn into a stalemate, in which case Afghanistan will witness a new war. This is a time of change, so what is to come will likely be very challenging and difficult in terms of the need to proceed with caution in order to ensure real peace in Afghanistan. We look forward to a positive time ahead with the hope that good decisions are made.

New release from Hay’at Taḥrīr al-Shām’s Shaykh Abū ‘Abd Allah al-Shāmī: “Congratulations, Ṭālibān!”


Click the following link for a safe PDF copy: Shaykh Abū ‘Abd Allah al-Shāmī — Congratulations, Ṭālibān!


Source: Telegram

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New release from Shaykh Abū Muḥammad al-Maqdisī: “About the Taliban Negotiations With the Apostate Kabul Government in Doha”

Click the following link for a safe PDF copy: Shaykh Abū Muḥammad al-Maqdisī — About the Taliban Negotiations With the Apostate Kabul Government in Doha


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New release from Abū Qatādah al-Filisṭīnī: “Negotiations Between the Ṭālibān and the Afghan Government #1”

كانت حركة طالبان تؤكد وتصر على عدم المفاوضات مع الحكومة،تحقيراً لها أن تكون نداً لها،ولعدم اعتبار هذه الحكومة ذات معنى ليعترف بها طرفاً مقابلاً للحركة،وهذا معنى سياسي مهم،وبقيت تصر على أن المقصود بالمفاوضات هي الحكومة الأمريكية،وقد استطاعت الإنتصار في هذا المفصل السياسي،وكانت مطالب الحركة من الحكومة وخاصة إطلاق المساجين تتم من خلال طلب هذا من الأمريكان،ولذلة الحكومة كانت تخضع لطلبات الأمريكان التي يشترطها الطالبان حفظهم الله،وهكذا أطلق سراح كل مساجين طالبان،وهذا إنجاز جهادي لم يحصل قط مثيلاً له في تاريخنا المعاصر على هذا الوجه،وهو ينبؤك لما تريده أمريكا من التخلص من المستنقع الجهادي مع طالبان في أفغانستان.
المساجين لهم درجات خطورة،وعلى قاعدة تدوير المربع،وهو فن غربي بامتياز استطاعت أمريكا أن تنجز المطلب الطالباني بعدم التقدم نحو آي خطوة مع وجود مسجون واحد مهما بلغت خطورته،فكانت نهاية هذا الملف.
الخداع الأمريكي الذي تسعى إليه أمريكا وضع الطالبان وجهاً لوجه مع الحكومة الأفغانية في مفاوضات مباشرة حتى تصبح قضية أفغانستان قضية فرقاء أفغان على خلاف سياسي،وبالمفاوضات يتم الحوار لتقريب وجهات النظر بين الخصمين،وهذا ما قدرت على تحقيقه أمريكا في المشهد النهائي الذي رأيناه في الدوحة،وقد هللت أمريكا لهذا المنجز،ويحق لها.
إلى هذه اللحظة لم يعلن إلا على كلمة واحدة اتفق عليها الأفغان،وهو اسم الدولة،وأنها جمهورية إسلامية،والكل يعلن أن الخلاف كبير في تفاصيل هذا الشعار،والشيطان كما يقولون يكمن في التفاصيل.

لا أدري تكتيك الطالبان في هذه المفاوضات،والاختيارات كثيرة جدا،قد يبدأ فيها أنها مناورة لإنجاز ملف الأسارى،وقد يعني أن طالبان تقبل المشاركة على معنى المحاصصة بينها وبين الحكومة الحالية،وهذا مع بعده لكنه أخطر ما يتصوره المرء.
هل أصرت أمريكا أن تخرج من صورة العداء لأفغانستان إلى صورة راعية لمهمة السلم بين الأفغان،وهذا قد ينجح وقد يخسر والأمر بيد الطالبان،ولا ندري ما مقدار الوعود الأمريكية لطالبان حتى تنازلت وقبلت الجلوس مع الحكومة(العميلة،كما كانت طالبان تصر على تسميتها،وأنها دمية).

يجزم الناظر أن قبول الطالبان الجلوس مع الحكومة انتصار أمريكي ومن معهم من الوسطاء،لكن لم يكن لأمريكا أن تحقق هذا الإنجاز في مفاوضات سياسية إلا بما يقابله من الإنجاز والفوائد لطالبان،وهذا خطير لو تواصل على هذا المعنى.
ملف الأسرى ملف مهم،وإنجاز طالباني كبير،ولكن بعد ذلك فكل إنجاز مقابل بقاء الحكومة أو بعضها كوجه شرعي لأفغانستان يفقد طالبان صورتها كإمارة شرعية لأفغانستان كما تقدم نفسها للعالم.
طالبان إمارة إسلامية،لا يهمنا وراء ذلك من أسماء،ولكن إن وضعت الأسماء على حقائق مشتركة بين حكومة غير شرعية،وعقلية تؤمن بمبدأ الإمارة الإسلامية يعني انتهاء شرعية المفهوم الطالباني كلياً.
في الخاتمة من المهم جدا،بل من ضرورة الجهد الطالباني والفهم السليم لهم بقاء جهة المفاوضات لإخراج القوات الأمريكية ومن معها بين طالبان وبينهم فقط،وليس مع جهة أفغانية أخرى،وعدم إغلاق هذا الملف انتظارا لما يصل إليه الفرقاء الأفغان كما تسعى أمريكا.
المسألة الثانية:المفاوضات بين طالبان وبين الحكومة يجب أن يبقى في عالم التكتيك،وأنه منّة طالبانية لإنجاز ملفات شرعية وسياسية مهمة،وعدم الذهاب به بعيداً،حتى يملأ المشهد الأفغاني.
الجلوس على مائدة واحدة بين طالبان وبين الحكومة إنجاز أمريكي،وهذا ما يجب الإقرار به،ولذلك رأينا الفرح والترحيب الشديد به،ويمكن إعذار(بضعف)طالبان في قبوله،لكن ما زالت المساحة مساحة جهادية بين طالبان وأمريكا،وبين طالبان والحكومة،وأي تكتيك يفسد هذا الباب خسارة كبرى على المدى الطويل.


Source: Telegram

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