New release from Iḥsān Allah Iḥsān: “U.S.-Ṭālibān Peace Deal: What Will Be the Future of Other Jihādī Organizations In the Region?”

The Afghan people’s hopes for peace were revived when an agreement was reached between the United States and the Taliban in Qatar, according to which the prisoner exchange was to be completed in ten days to pave the way for intra-Afghan peace talks. It took several months for the exchange of prisoners to take place, which further prolonged the wait of the Afghan people. The process has begun, thus fulfilling the aspirations of the Afghan people for peace, one step closer, although the process of intra-Afghan negotiations will be extremely difficult and lengthy because of the factors of war, including the formation of a new system and government. All issues related to prevention and future will be discussed. As the dialogue progresses, the parties’ priorities and future policies become clearer, but there are many challenges along the way, especially the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (Afghan Taliban). The challenge for the Taliban will be to deal with non-Afghan mujahideen and organizations in the future because the Taliban have assured the United States in the Qatar Agreement that they will not allow their territory to be used against any other country and that al Qaeda and others International jihadist organizations will end their ties, but it will not be easy because the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan will have to face two major organizations (Al Qaeda and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan) with which they have had very close ties in the past. These organizations not only supported the Islamic Emirate as supreme but also played the role of Ansar during the fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan especially when some migrated to Pakistan and needed assistance. Al-Qaeda is the only organization for which Amir al-Mu’minin Mullah Muhammad Omar Mujahid (may God have mercy on him) ended his government. He did not hand over leader, Osama bin Laden to the United States, as the US refused to provide proof of involvement in 9/11 which was requested by Islamic Emirate. In the current situation, the leadership of the Islamic Emirate will face a major test because if we look at the manifesto of Al Qaeda and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, then Al-Qaeda is a global jihad while Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan is a believer in jihadi activities inside Pakistan. It would be unacceptable for the Afghan Taliban to abandon these activities or to impose any rules and regulations to limit their activities if these organizations show loyalty and are supported by the Islamic Emirate. The day-to-day rules for their stay in Afghanistan may be accepted, but it will be impossible for them to back away from their goals. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan recently sent a delegation to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. This was to brief the TTP leadership on the upcoming situation and the newly formulated principles that the Afghan Taliban had formulated for foreign fighters and organizations in which these organizations were to have a complete record of all their fighters, collecting their personal identification details and photo. Included in the new rules were the following, do not use a man against any other country, adhere to the organizational policy and charter of the Islamic Emirate, do not recruit new fighters, stay in the place designated by the Afghan Taliban and tell the Taliban about your movements. There were a number of other strict conditions, including alerting the intelligence wing.
TTP leadership, after listening to these conditions and after a brief consultation, rejected them as unworkable and informed the delegation of the Islamic Emirate of its decision. Although Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid denied this after my tweet on the subject, But I have all the necessary evidence to substantiate my claim.
I think this is the first time that TTP leadership has refused to obey the orders of the Islamic Emirate(if they had accepted these conditions) it would have had to abandon the military struggle against Pakistan, which is its main objective and the first part of its manifesto. In this way, the existence of TTP would be jeopardized and its very purpose of survival lost. On the other hand, there are groups and commanders within TTP who have a very strong stance against Pakistan and have never been in favour of negotiation. The stance has always been that they will not hesitate to revolt and continue their struggle.  Recent developments and discussions have also reinforced the statement within the Pakistani Taliban that the imposition of conditions by the Islamic Emirate is at the behest of Pakistan. Some commanders believe that the Pakistani military is rapidly re-engaging operations inside Pakistan and the institutions are worried, so they are using the Afghan Taliban as a tactic to silence TTP. If this impression persists, it will create more distance between TTP and the Islamic Emirate in the long run. Until then, ideologically, we think that the relationship between the two great powers will not improve in any way. What are the options for the leadership of the Islamic Emirate and the TTP in this complex situation and what should they do to get out of this situation? I think the first option might be to try to mediate between TTP and the government of Pakistan as a mediator after peace in Afghanistan and after the Islamic Emirate comes to power or joins Afghanistan. It should try to find a peaceful solution and persuade TTP to become part of Pakistan’s political system as is now being developed for peace in Afghanistan. The second option may be that after the Taliban comes to power, all foreign fighters and organizations should be offered Afghan citizenship and offered to become a peaceful part of Afghan society. In addition efforts should be made to create a good atmosphere at the international level to make the world aware of the delicacy and seriousness of this issue. Also, the countries whose fighters are in Afghanistan should be responsible for all the needs and expenses incurred in this regard if this option is implemented. Al-Qaeda’s case is different from the TTP’s. Their front and ideology is global jihad, so they will try to manage themselves. It is possible that al-Qaeda will call its fighters to the fronts where they have some degree of rule. In addition, if Afghan Taliban try to eliminate or silence other groups by force, their own reputation could be negatively affected, especially in jihadi circles. The situation would turn into a stalemate, in which case Afghanistan will witness a new war. This is a time of change, so what is to come will likely be very challenging and difficult in terms of the need to proceed with caution in order to ensure real peace in Afghanistan. We look forward to a positive time ahead with the hope that good decisions are made.