Salaam Alaykom wa rahmatollah wa barakatuh,
in the name of Allah,most gracious,most merciful.
Praise be to Allah, Lord of Creation; Lord and Supporter of the oppressed monotheists; Breaker and Vanquisher of unjust tyrants. Peace and blessings be upon the Seal of the Prophets, and their master; Imam and exemplar of the Mujahideen; and upon his household and his companions and those guided by his guidance; revive his Sunnah until the Day of Judgment. :
The inevitable fall of the Syrian government is clearer than the sun in the sky. Both enemy and ally are aware that it is only a matter of time before we see total destruction and dissolution of Bashar al-Assad’s rule. This claim is not based on fiction or untrue statements, this claim is based on observations and evidence.
The threat is clear. While the U.S government is slumbering away, other parties who have interests in Syria are gaining support and making major advances in the heart of Syria. it’s a little bit funny…. how the United states of America is standing on the sideline while the biggest threat to Israel is getting fiercer and stronger by the day. Al-Qaeda inspired groups are gaining support from revolutionaries in and outside of Syria. The stronger Jihadist become in the triangle (Iraq,Syria and Lebanon) of “terror”, the more complicated it will be to disable them in the future.
Exposing their plans
The United states and its allies will do everything in their power to disfigure the image of Sunni Islamist in Syria. They will probably launch a covert campaign against jihadist leaders and prominent members in Syria. Covert campaign? Will they Succeed? If we take a close look at the jihadist groups which were formed during the Arab spring, we can clearly see that most of its members are coming from different backgrounds with different aims. The veterans who were active before the Arab spring are religious people who want to fulfill their religious duties. Newborn jihadist exist of upper, middle and lower class citizens who lost hope in the current government system. The one thing Veterans and newborn jihadist have in common is that they both want to establish an Islamic state. The United states and its allies should think twice before they contemplate to attack jihadist groups in Syria. This will have a counter-effect on the west, and the Syrian people will consider this an act of aggression against their sons and protectors.
What can and can’t the United states do to divert the revolution in advantage of the West? The United states can’t use the “Sunni VS Alawite” card. The Alawite sect is only a minority, which already signed its death sentence by supporting al-Assad against the revolutionaries. In the case of Iraq, the United states played it very smart by distributing pressure of enemy attacks on two fronts. After the bloody war between the Sunnis and Shi’tes, the United states attacked the Iraqi resistance by their own flesh and blood. The ‘Awakening’ councils were formed in the heart of the Iraqi Resistance movements. And what could have been better for the United states than an ally who knows everything about their enemy?!
Staging attacks on FSA: The United states could turn the Syrian people against Al-Qaeda inspired groups by staging attacks on the Free Syrian Army, and make it appear as if Al-Qaeda was behind the attacks. It will not work immediately but it could work on a long-term period. First they have to recruit mercenaries from in and outside of Syria, deploy Jordanian and Lebanese agents who have some experience in infiltrating Islamic movements, and use Arabic news agencies like AL-jazeera – AL-Arabia to misguide the people.
New allies: In Addition, The United states of America could stop the influence of Al-Qaeda inspired groups by exploiting potential allies. They don’t have to start in the heart of Syria, they can start with Syrian Minorities and work towards the strongholds of the Syrian resistance. Kurds in Syria are the largest minority, If the United states is capable of uniting the kurds of Iraq, Syria and turkey in the bordering-provinces, they can isolate Al-Qaeda inspired groups from entering or spreading their ideas to the Kurds. Same thing can be done in the Turk-men cities.
Relief work: Another practical tactic they can use is, putting pressure on Al-Qaeda inspired groups by hijacking their relief work, Instead of watching Al-Qaeda inspired groups feeding the Syrian people, the United states and their allies can make it disappear by taking a strong position in relief work.
Collision between the Syrian Opposition: Al-Qaeda inspired groups in Syria have different objectives than other opposition parties who are currently operating in Turkey and Qatar. Strong and organized groups like Jabhat Al-Nusra, Ahrah As-Shaam, Kataib Al-Muhajireen and some other smaller fractions, want to establish an Islamic state in Syria. Other opposition parties want to establish a state which is recognized by the United nations and other western powers. Are they going to collide in the future? What can be done to avoid collision between Al-Qaeda inspired groups and the “Syrian National Coalition”?. Syrian people want security, sense of freedom, education, jobs, food and strong leadership. If Al-Qaeda inspired groups or the “Syrian National Coalition” can provide the above mentioned things , then one of the two parties will have the vast majority behind them. Leaders of Al-Qaeda inspired groups need to gather scientists, professors, teachers, engineers, businessmen/women, investors, tribal elders etc… to present their future plans and gain their support. It is impossible to establish a state without the above mentioned people. The Syrian people don’t want to go back to the middle ages and live in fear of an Islamic dictatorship.
Support: What explains support for the Islamists in Syria? Why are the Syrian people not following clean shaven guys in suits? Some will say that “The Syrian people don’t have a choice other than following Islamic fundamentalist.” In reality both sides know that the portrayal of pro-Sharia Muslims in the media is contradicting reality. The Syrian people are first eye witnesses who are seeing the opposite of what the Western and Arabic media agencies are reporting. The first eye witnesses, and their testimony is of essential importance.
Collapse of the Syrian government will lead to dissolution of the rejectionist quadrilateral. Geographically, the Iranian rejectionist, can’t reach Palestine if Syria is not in their control. The rejectionist quadrilateral is like a series circuit: “if one falls,all fall.” This doesn’t mean that the Iranian, Iraqi and Lebanese rejectionist will stop trying to save their strongest pillars. The Iranians will do everything in their power to create a strong buffer in Iraq and Lebanon. According to our sources in the region, Pro al-Assad scientist and weapon engineers have fled to Lebanon and Iran. Are they preparing for a war in Lebanon?
Lebanon is on the verge of a civil war. Every week there are clashes between pro Syrian and anti revolutionary supporters in Beirut and Tripoli. The core cause of the next civil war in Lebanon are not these clashes, but we can’t deny the fact that these clashes are glimpse of a new civil war in Lebanon . There are two scenarios that could lead to a civil war in Lebanon; In the first scenario, the Sunnis in Lebanon revolt against “Hezbollah” and the current westernized government. In the second scenario,which has the best chance of happening; Syria’s war spills over to Lebanon and ignites a bloody war between Sunnis and Shia’s all over Lebanon. Therefore, the Islamic youth of Lebanon need to prepare themselves mentally and physically for future military activities against their sworn enemy.
“Cut off the head of the rejectionist snake”
The dreams of the Iranian “Ayatollahs” are falling apart. one could say that the Iranians hard work was all in vain. What are the Iranians planning to do after the fall of Bashar al-Assad? Self preservation is of essential importance for every power in the region, being aware of hostile forces who want to harm your territorial sovereignty is the first law of nature. Iran’s plan to become the strongest force in the region is not happening due to the rise of Jihadist in Syria/Iraq, and the western financial sanctions.
Baqir Jabr Al-Zubeidi said in an interview with al-iraqiyah news channel that one of his close friends who is a high ranking commander in the Iraqi army told him ” If jabhat Al-Nusra wins the war in Syria…the jihadist will fight us in the middle of Baghdad and not on the outskirts of Baghdad!!!” In other words, empowering the Islamic state of Iraq and its affiliates means the end of the current Iraqi government.
In the end, the rejectionist quadrilateral is being replaced by the jihadist quadrilateral that will change the world map.
And Allah knows best… and peace and blessings of Allah on our Prophet Muhammad and on his family and companions altogether…
Monday January 14th 2013