NOTE: As with all guest posts, the opinions expressed below are those of the guest author and they do not necessarily represent the views of this blogs administrator and does not at all represent his employer at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Jihadology.net aims to not only provide primary sources for researchers and occasional analysis of them, but also to allow other young and upcoming students as well as established academics or policy wonks to contribute original analysis on issues related to jihadism. If you would like to contribute a piece, please email your idea/post to azelin [at] jihadology [dot] net.
Click here to see an archive of all guest posts.
The End of al-Qaeda
By Aimen Dean
Sources within Ahrar al-Sham stated that their allies in Jabhat al-Nusra have told them that AQ leader Ayman al-Zawahiri will relinquish his authority – or what left of it – over AQ branches globally and absolve them of their allegiance to him. The move was in response to the rising power of Islamic State in Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Libya and Nigeria as well as new IS incursion into Yemen. AQ and Zawahiri can no longer offer any meaningful leadership and the trend among the two strongest and largest AQ branches (al-Nusra and AQAP) is that the association with AQ is no longer an asset when it come to local conflicts in Syria and Yemen, instead it is a hindrance and a liability.
While Zawahiri and AQ central command have been ineffective and side lined since the start of 2014 and with the rise of the IS, nevertheless they provided moral and legitimate voice for al- Nusra and AQAP in the face of IS expansion. The immediate implication for such move (once it happens) is that al-Nusra would be free to establish wider alliances within Syria and open the door again for its plans for an Islamic Emirate in northern Syria after Idlib was taken with the help of Ahrar al-Sham. The move will also help AQAP to abandon the al-Qaeda name and adopt once and for all the new name of “Ansar al-Sharia”. Both groups possess their own funding mechanism and have been (for several years) free financially from al-Qaeda Central Command. Nonetheless dissolving al-Qaeda will be seen as the end of an era and the beginning of a new chapter for both al-Nusra and AQAP (Ansar al-Sharia). AQIM were already dissolving and merging with other regional groups across the Sahara/North African region, therefore there will be limited strategic or logistical impact from this announcement.
Aimen Dean is a founder member of al-Qaeda, who changed tack in 1998 and became a spy for Britain’s security and intelligence services, MI5 and MI6